Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Ticker: GS, Aug. 1, '08 to Oct. 28, '09 = -3.64%

Oct. 29, '08 to Oct. 28, '09 = +83.99%



JPM @ SIFMA, Oct., 27, '09 (
http://cdn-w.sifma.org/webair/sifma/public/annual2009/Jamie-Dimon.mp3)

80 Years Ago: "Black Thursday"

WSJ: To mark the occasion, MarketBeat ["WSJ.com's inside look at the markets"] has been asking financial historians for their thoughts — mini-essays if you will — on how the Great Crash informs the way we think about the current market recovery.

Gridtime

NYT: White House Steps Up Climate Efforts
WP: U.S. electrical grid gets $3.4 billion jolt of stimulus funding
LAT: Obama says momentum growing for climate-change legislation

NYT: California and Texas: Renewable Energy’s Odd Couple: Texas’s secret, besides strong winds and lots of land, is its lack of regulation... California, by contrast, has all but stifled wind developers. The state built several big wind farms in the 1980s — but has added very few since, because of the cost and delays of complying with stringent state environmental regulations... Such snags are a key reason California has turned to solar power. It’s more expensive than wind, but plastering rooftops of homes and businesses with panels takes up no extra land. There is still plenty of paperwork involved, but rooftop solar largely avoids regulatory snarls...

PM: Lone Star Energy: Why Texas Will Resist the Call for a Unified Grid

California State Senate: This bill establishes the smart grid policy of the state and requires the California Public Utilities Commission to determine the requirements for a smart grid deployment plan no later than July 1, 2011.

Rewind: Griddle

Monday, October 19, 2009

22 Years Ago: "Black Monday"

Monday, October 19, 1987: The largest one-day percentage decline (-22.6%) in the history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average ("the stock market").

The crash began in Asian markets the morning of October 19. Later that morning, two U.S. warships shelled an Iranian oil platform in the Persian Gulf in response to Iran's Silkworm missile attack on the U.S. flagged ship MV Sea Isle City.

The Dow did not regain its August 25, 1987 closing high of 2,722 points until almost two years later. (20 Years Ago: Berlin Wall Falls)

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Wall Street & Washington vs. the Country

October 14th stories:

Wall Street On Track To Award Record Pay
: Workers at 23 top investment banks, hedge funds, asset managers and stock and commodities exchanges can expect to earn even more than they did the peak year of 2007, according to an analysis of securities filings for the first half of 2009 and revenue estimates through year-end by The Wall Street Journal.

Still on the Job, but at Half the Pay
: ...now pay cuts, sometimes the result of downgrades in rank or shortened workweeks, are occurring more frequently than at any time since the Great Depression... The Bureau of Labor Statistics does not track pay cuts, but it suggests they are reflected in the steep decline of another statistic: total weekly pay for production workers, pilots among them, representing 80 percent of the work force. That index has fallen for nine consecutive months, an unprecedented string over the 44 years the bureau has calculated weekly pay, capturing the large number of people out of work, those working fewer hours and those whose wages have been cut... Even senior captains on legacy airlines rarely earn above $200,000 today, as they often did in the past. Mr. Lawlor says pilots’ pay these days fails to recognize the training and skill involved in transporting passengers even more safely than in the past.

The Years of Magical Thinking: Goodman, a national economics correspondent for The New York Times, doesn’t go so far as to match literary characters with real-life figures, but clearly the former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan would be his Peter Pan: the fantastical flying boy who wouldn’t grow up to confront the adult world, where his theory of pristine, self-correcting markets simply doesn’t work the way he wishes it would. If Greenspan is Peter, then his band of Lost Boys who live with him in Neverland would include the current Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, and the chief White House economic adviser, Lawrence Summers. Unless our Lost Boys imitate their literary counterparts and return to the gravity-bound world, we could face further rounds of economic disaster... Greenspan, in one of history’s most galling now-you-tell-us moments, confessed last October that his magical thinking had turned out to be false. Thankfully, he’s gone from the public stage. Bernanke and Summers remain in positions of tremendous influence, and they have failed, so far, to articulate specifically just how wrong Greenspan was, and how they intend to reshape the worlds of banking and financial regulation... Goodman’s book reminds us that this situation contains the seeds of future fiascoes.

NYC's September Unemployment Rate: 10.3%: ...New York, even as it's losing the luster of Wall Street, taxes small businesses the way California taxes millionaires.

That dynamic is manifest in Manhattan's new monoculture. Gone, on their way out or being pushed to smaller, confined spaces are the flower district, the fur district, the garment center, the meatpacking district and the famed Fulton Fish Market. Even the diamond district is being nudged out of its 47th Street storefronts and into a city-subsidized new office tower.

The hollowed out city as "luxury product"—as Mr. Bloomberg once described his vision for a New York in which the wealthy subsidize the city's work force—is unsustainable...

Monday, October 12, 2009

Kaptur: "Wall Street and Washington Is a Circuit"

Bill Moyers Journal (PBS, October 9, 2009):

BILL MOYERS: ...Treasury Secretary Geithner is on the phone several times a day with a select group of very powerful Wall Street bankers, especially Citigroup, J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs... And these are the bankers who helped bring on this calamity and who are now benefiting from it. What does that say to you?

MARCY KAPTUR: That says to me that Wall Street and Washington is a circuit. And because Mr.Geithner headed the New York Fed that that historic relationship, unfortunately, continues. And it gives them special access and special power to influence policy.

SIMON JOHNSON: Well, I think it really tells you how the system works. The system is based on access and is based on what on Wall Street shaping Washington's view of what's important.

It's the people who are very close to Mr. Geithner before when he was the head of the New York Fed. Before he became Treasury Secretary. These people have unparalleled access...

MARCY KAPTUR: ...I recently asked Chairman Bernanke of the Federal Reserve, 'Let me ask you a question. Would you be willing to consider a reform where the Cleveland Fed would have equal power to the New York Fed, in terms of how the Fed is run?' And his answer was, 'No.'...

SIMON JOHNSON: Remember Wall Street convinced us that trading derivatives without any regulation, that all these kind of crazy housing loans, which are very dangerous for consumers. That all of this was sensible. All of this was a good way to sustain growth. That was wrong. That wasn't it. That wasn't that's not the end of the story. In the crisis, when things got bad, they also convinced the key people in Washington that they, the bankers, the big bankers, the Wall Street bankers, who are really responsible for all of these problems, they should be saved. Not just their banks, but they individually and should be saved. Their jobs, their pensions, all their perks. It's an extraordinary moment.

BILL MOYERS: You asked on your blog, just this week, a question I want to put to you now, and to both of you. You asked, 'Does this crisis reflect something about the disproportionate influence of a few incompetent investment bankers or a deeper breakdown of capitalism?'' What's your answer to your own question?

SIMON JOHNSON: Well, definitely, this disproportionate influence of some fairly incompetent bankers, that's for sure. That's what we're seeing today. That's what we've seen over the past few months. I think on the issue on the issue of capitalism, we have to take this very seriously. To me, at least, the financial part of our capitalism is very seriously broken... the big financial players are absolutely against any kind of sensible regulation. And I think they're going to win... These are very smart, very profit-oriented people... Follow the money. The money is where Jamie Dimon says it is. Jamie Dimon says, 'You ain't seen nothing yet,' in terms of his lobby in Washington. He's on the record as saying, this is his big initiative right now.

-- http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/10092009/watch.html

Simon Johnson (The Baseline Scenario, October 6, 2009): Over the past 30 years Wall Street captured the thinking of official Washington, persuading policymakers on both sides of the aisle... This was pervasive cultural capture or, to be blunter, mind control. But when the crisis broke it was not enough. Having powerful people generally on your side is not what you need when all hell breaks loose in financial markets. Official decisions will be made fast... If you run a big troubled bank, you need a man on the inside – someone who will take your calls late at night and rely on you for on the ground knowledge. Preferably, this person should have little first-hand experience of the markets... Tim Geithner, Secretary of the Treasury... Geithner’s phone calls were primarily to and from people he knew well already -- who had cultivated a relationship with him over the years... The Obama administration had to rescue large parts of the financial sector, given the situation they inherited. But it absolutely did not have to run the rescue in this exact fashion -- bending over backwards to be nice to leading bankers and allowing their banks to become even larger... The idea that you could leave big US bank bosses in place (or let them get stronger politically) and do meaningful regulatory reform later has always seemed illusory -- and this strategy now appears to be in serious trouble.

James Kwak (The Baseline Scenario, October 12, 2009): At a panel discussion at the Pew Charitable Trusts (captured for posterity by Planet Money), Alice Rivlin floated the idea of breaking up big banks. Luckily for us, Scott Talbott of the Financial Services Roundtable (a lobbying group for big banks) was there to slap that idea down.

Talbott: “We need big companies, and they can be managed, and they are being managed...”

Alex Blumberg (Planet Money): “But why, why do we need big companies?”

Talbott: “They provide a number of benefits across the globe. We have a global economy, and these institutions can handle the finances of the world. They can also handle the finances of large, non-bank institutions like General Electric or Johnson & Johnson. They need these institutions [that] can handle the complex transactions. Simply breaking them up ... then you’re discouraging a company from achieving the American Dream..."

There are two things I object to strongly. The second is easy. The American Dream is for people, not companies... When Talbott says “American Dream,” what he really means is “American Bank CEO’s Dream”...

The first is this “we need big banks to serve global corporations” line. I’ve heard this before and I don’t buy it, for a number of reasons...


Simon Johnson and James Kwak (The Washington Post, September 29, 2009): The next couple of months will be crucial in determining the shape of the financial system for decades to come. And so far, the signs are not encouraging.

Simon Johnson and James Kwak (The Washington Post, October 6, 2009): ...the "blame China" story (or the "half-blame China" variant) suffers from serious problems. First, it takes two to tango... Second, the Chinese government did not lend to American home buyers directly... Third, there is no particular reason why a "giant pool of money" should produce a bubble.

Fast-forward: September 2010:
Michael Hirsch, now at the National Journal, explains why presidents, from Ronald Reagan through Barack Obama, have put Wall Street before Main Street. In his book Capital Offense: How Washington's Wise Men Turned America's Future Over to Wall Street, he looks into how that preference has caused numerous economic crises around the world...

"Greenspan grew very passionate about [Rand] ... and her philosophy ... Then October 2008 ... he said my entire intellectual edifice has collapsed."

Thursday, October 8, 2009

U.S. Real Estate Vacancy Rates Hit Multiyear Highs

Need quick and drastic change to prevent avalanche.

Reuters: The vacancy rate at U.S. strip malls reached a 17-year high in the third quarter and mall vacancy was the highest in at least 10 years, reflecting the protracted pull-back by consumers... "Our outlook for retail properties as a whole is bleak," Victor Calanog, Reis director of research, said. "Until we see stabilization and recovery take root in both consumer spending and business spending and hiring, we do not foresee a recovery in the retail sector until late 2012 at the earliest."

Reuters: The U.S. office vacancy rate reached a five-year high in the third quarter, pushed up by extra unused space that just about wiped out all the gains made during the commercial real estate boom... The national vacancy rate rose 0.6 percentage point to 16.5 percent from the prior quarter and is up 2.3 percentage points from a year earlier... "The last time we saw vacancies in the mid-16s was at the end of 2004," Victor Calanog, Reis director of research said.

Reuters: The U.S. apartment market in the third quarter turned in one of its weakest performances ever as the national vacancy rate hit a 23-year high... 7.8 percent... Vacancies have been rising since the third quarter of 2007... Loans on apartment buildings have led the real estate industry in defaults with hotels a close second... "It makes me wonder whether the avalanche is on its way for office and retail (real estate) unless things change really quickly and really drastically," Victor Calanog, Reis director of research, said.

+ Reuters: Every 13 seconds in America, there is another foreclosure filing... There are more than 6,600 home foreclosure filings per day, according to the Center for Responsible Lending, a nonpartisan watchdog group based in Durham, North Carolina... the flood of foreclosures shows no sign of abating any time soon... the country's worst housing downturn since record-keeping began in the late 19th century may only get worse since foreclosures, which started with subprime borrowers, have now moved on to the much bigger prime loan market on the back of mounting unemployment... Michael Barr, the Treasury Department's assistant secretary for financial institutions, said more than 6 million families could face foreclosure over the next three years.

"The recent crisis in the housing sector has devastated families and communities across the country and is at the center of our financial crisis and economic downturn," Barr said.


PS: David Winters, Portfolio Manager, Wintergreen Fund, 9/25/09 (via PBS's WealthTrack): "At Wintergreen, we're very much focused on the world beyond the United States because that's where the action is."

PPS: APM's Marketplace: Urban farming takes root in Detroit



Trailer 'Grown in Detroit' from Mascha Poppenk on Vimeo.



Urban Roots directed by Detroit-native Mark McInnis

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Bake Sales Banned (Why?)

“We have an undeniable problem in the city, state and the country with obesity,” said Eric Goldstein, the chief of the office of school support services. “During the school day, we have to focus on what is healthy for the mind and the body.”

Unsurprisingly, the rationale is getting a cool reception among students...

With the changes, school administrators and teachers who oversee student clubs are laboring to come up with other easy ways to raise money, particularly at a time when school budgets are being cut.

John Sommers, the assistant principal of organization at La Guardia, said that all fund-raisers using food were on hold for now...

Mr. Sommers said he was trying to figure out other ways for students to raise money, perhaps by selling T-shirts or key chains. (All of which are decidedly more expensive to produce than a box of brownies.)

Department officials are suggesting that teams use walk-a-thons and similar activities as a way of raising money and doing something active.

For all the changes, there is much the regulations do not address. For instance, there are no stipulations of what kind of treats students may bring to class...

Schools around the United States, including throughout California, have banned bake sales or put a limit on the sugar and fat content of the goodies. But New York’s regulations are among the strictest in the country, said Howard Wechsler, the director of the division of adolescent and school health at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention... (NYT Readers' Comments)

Friday, October 2, 2009

U.S. Unemployment Rate: 9.8 to 17+ Percent (and Twitter Valued at $1 Billion)



-- Current, 0:25: Domino's is the old-school business model. They "sell a product" called "pizza" and "people buy that pizza" and "Domino's makes a profit."

[Fast-forward: FT: December 31, 2010: A December funding round valued the company at $3.7bn... Though the value of the company was recently estimated at $3.7bn, it runs at a loss.; Charlie Rose, January 11, 2011, Since its inception in 2006, the site has become a powerful tool... 24:46 (of 25:18): Is Twitter making money? It's making, it's making money. We have revenue... Making money has to do with profit. Making money has to do about positive cash flow. We have a long way to go. We have long way to go... We have revenue.]

[Jun. '11: Ttr. worth $7B: "...just over 500 employees...more than 200 million registered user accounts, is currently on track to produce about $150 million in ad revenue this year, according to research firm eMarketer, up from $45 million last year...According to comScore Inc., Twitter.com in May saw 139 million unique visitors globally, up from 90 million a year earlier. Growth in the U.S. has been slower than internationally, with the site hitting 27 million unique U.S. visitors in May, up from 23.8 million in 2010."]

[Sooo... Dec. '11: Ttr. worth $9-12B?]

[Fast-forward: Apr. '12: Instagram bought for $1B]

[Fast-forward: May '12: Pinterest valued at $1.5B...WSJ: "The $1 Billion Club Gets Crowded: At least 20 closely held U.S. companies backed by venture capital are now valued at $1 billion or more...Today's membership exceeds even that during the frothy days of the late 1990s dot-com bubble, when 18 such start-ups scored a $1 billion-or-higher price tag...Most of the valuation frenzy has unfolded only recently. Since the beginning of last year, 15 start-ups have landed 10-figure valuations. Only two weeks ago, note-taking app maker Evernote Corp. hit the milestone...Many of today's billion-dollar club members do differ from their dot-com brethren in that they generate revenue, and spend far less cash than Web companies a decade ago. Dropbox CEO Drew Houston, for example, has said the San Francisco company is profitable..."]


AP: Even though economists think the economy has begun to grow, it could be well into 2010 before job creation ramps up.

Forbes: Manhattan, Kansas [4.8%] shares the attributes of many of the cities with the lowest unemployment [Lincoln, Nebraska: 4.3%] -- a state with a strong agricultural base and a big college campus, in this case, Kansas State.

NYT: G.D.P. R.I.P., G.D.P. Seen as Inadequate Measure of Economic Health